Source avec lien : Royal Society Open Science, Prépublication.
L’épidémie de SRAS-CoV-2 continue d’avoir des répercussions importantes sur l’éducation des enfants, les écoles devant mettre en place des mesures de contrôle de l’infection qui ont entraîné de longues périodes d’absence et des fermetures de classes. Nous avons développé un modèle épidémiologique de transmission du SRAS-CoV-2 basé sur un agent qui nous permet de quantifier les modèles d’infection projetés dans les salles de classe des écoles primaires, ainsi que les incertitudes qui y sont liées.
Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic continues to have major impacts on children’s education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to long periods of absence and classroom closures. We have developed an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that allows us to quantify projected infection patterns within primary school classrooms, and related uncertainties; the basis of our approach is a contact model constructed using random networks, informed by structured expert judgement. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies are considered in terms of effectiveness at supressing infection outbreaks and limiting pupil absence. Covid-19 infections in schools in the UK in Autumn 2020 are re-examined and the model used for forecasting infection levels in autumn 2021, as the more infectious Delta-variant was emerging and school transmission thought likely to play a major role in an incipient new wave of the epidemic. Our results were in good agreement with available data. These findings indicate that testing-based surveillance of infections in the classroom population with isolation of positive cases is a more effective mitigation measure than bubble quarantine, both for reducing transmission in primary schools and for avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine entails large numbers of pupils being absent from school, with only modest impact on classroom infection levels. However, maintaining reduced contact rates within the classroom can have a major beneficial impact for managing Covid-19 in school settings.