Source avec lien : Scientific Reports, 11(1), . 10.1038/s41598-021-85302-6
Il existe un besoin urgent d’examiner, sur la base de données probantes, les plans de réouverture des centres de soins pour enfants pendant la pandémie de COVID-19. Nous avons développé un modèle de transmission du SRAS-CoV-2 au sein d’une garderie et des ménages. Les scénarios variaient le ratio élève/éducateur (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), le regroupement familial (frères et sœurs ensemble ou affectation aléatoire) et le temps passé en classe. Nous avons également évalué un contexte d’école primaire (avec des ratios élève-éducateur de 30:1, 15:1 et 8:1), y compris des cohortes qui alternent chaque semaine.
There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2-5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.